NBA power rankings
This is the forecast's own ranking. Every team is ordered by its rating, and the record is in there too, but it's not what sets the order. A team with a soft early schedule can have a better record than a team the model rates higher.
Ratings as of Nov 9. They change when the forecast is updated.
| # | Team | Record | Rating | Proj. wins | Playoff odds | Proj. wins since last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio | 8-2 | 9.7 | 58 | 99% | −0.1 |
| 2 | Oklahoma City | 8-2 | 9.6 | 59 | 99% | 0.0 |
| 3 | Boston | 8-2 | 8.9 | 58 | >99% | +0.5 |
| 4 | Detroit | 6-3 | 8.6 | 57 | >99% | −1.0 |
| 5 | Houston | 7-3 | 7.9 | 55 | 97% | −0.1 |
| 6 | Minnesota | 8-3 | 7.5 | 54 | 96% | +0.2 |
| 7 | Denver | 5-3 | 6.8 | 51 | 92% | +0.1 |
| 8 | New York | 5-4 | 6.4 | 51 | 97% | −0.2 |
| 9 | LA Lakers | 9-2 | 5.8 | 51 | 91% | +0.8 |
| 10 | Atlanta | 7-4 | 4.6 | 48 | 93% | 0.0 |
| 11 | Cleveland | 5-5 | 3.8 | 46 | 87% | 0.0 |
| 12 | Philadelphia | 9-2 | 3.7 | 49 | 94% | +0.5 |
| 13 | Toronto | 5-4 | 3.7 | 45 | 86% | 0.0 |
| 14 | Portland | 6-3 | 3.6 | 45 | 65% | −0.1 |
| 15 | Golden State | 7-3 | 2.9 | 45 | 61% | 0.0 |
| 16 | Miami | 4-6 | 2.3 | 42 | 72% | +0.6 |
| 17 | Phoenix | 3-5 | 1.4 | 39 | 28% | 0.0 |
| 18 | Memphis | 6-3 | 1.1 | 39 | 29% | −0.1 |
| 19 | LA Clippers | 2-7 | 1.0 | 36 | 18% | +0.8 |
| 20 | Dallas | 6-4 | −0.1 | 37 | 20% | +1.2 |
| 21 | Orlando | 2-7 | −0.3 | 35 | 32% | 0.0 |
| 22 | New Orleans | 4-6 | −1.2 | 33 | 6% | −0.8 |
| 23 | Charlotte | 3-7 | −1.5 | 32 | 19% | 0.0 |
| 24 | Indiana | 3-7 | −2.7 | 30 | 11% | +0.2 |
| 25 | Brooklyn | 2-8 | −4.3 | 26 | 3% | −1.1 |
| 26 | Chicago | 1-8 | −5.0 | 24 | 2% | −0.3 |
| 27 | Milwaukee | 1-9 | −5.0 | 24 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 28 | Sacramento | 1-9 | −5.4 | 22 | <1% | −0.4 |
| 29 | Utah | 1-9 | −6.0 | 21 | <1% | −0.2 |
| 30 | Washington | 4-6 | −7.1 | 23 | 1% | 0.0 |
Rating is points a game: the gap between two teams is about how many points the better one would win by on a neutral court.
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
Questions
How are these power rankings made?
They come straight from the forecast. Each team has a rating, and the list is sorted by it. Nobody votes, and nobody moves a team by hand.
Why isn't the team with the best record first?
Record depends on who you've played. The rating tries to take the schedule out of it, so early in the season it can disagree with the standings.
How often do they change?
Every time the forecast is updated. The date at the top says when that was.
What does the rating mean?
The gap between two teams' ratings is about how many points a game the better team would win by on a neutral court.