Cleveland Cavaliers forecast
Why the Cleveland Cavaliers are where they are, and a rotation you can play with: move minutes, sit a player, see what changes. Updated every night.
Why Cleveland is at 87% to make the playoffs
- 5-5 so far, heading for about 46 wins (38 to 53 in most of the seasons we played out).
- Plays like a team 3.8 points a game better than average, the 11th best rating in the league.
- 72 games left, and one of the easier schedules: the 2nd easiest of 30.
- The rating leans most on Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Peyton Watson. Sit one of them in the rotation below to see how much he matters.
Our forecast
- Projected wins
- 46
- Playoffs
- 87%
- Title
- 1%
With Allen, Merrill, Tyson and Tomlin back
Replaying the season…
Play with the rotation
Every player starts at the minutes he's been playing and the rating we give him. Change either one, or sit someone, and we replay the rest of the season 2,000 times.
| Player | Overall | Min/game | Out? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell Star creator | Overall+3.6 | 34 min | |
| James Harden Star creator | Overall−0.1 | 33 min | |
| Evan Mobley Interior big | Overall+1.6 | 33 min | |
| Peyton Watson Scoring wing | Overall+0.5 | 29 min | |
| Meleek Thomas New this season | Overall−0.7 | 22 min | |
| Mario Hezonja New this season | Overall−0.3 | 20 min | |
| Tyrese Proctor Playmaking guard | Overall+0.2 | 16 min | |
| Thomas Bryant Low-usage role player | Overall−0.2 | 12 min | |
| Craig Porter Jr. Playmaking guard | Overall−0.2 | 9 min | |
| End of the bench | 32 min |
Hurt right now
The forecast at the top of the page counts these players out for the rest of the season. Here they come back on the date shown, at the minutes they were playing before. Change a date to see what it does.
- Jarrett Allen knee contusion · 2 games missed · usually back between Nov 9 and Nov 20
- Sam Merrill arm/elbow management · 1 game missed · usually back by Nov 9
- Jaylon Tyson ankle sprain · 5 games missed · usually back between Nov 11 and Dec 1
- Nae'Qwan Tomlin back/neck fracture · 10 games missed · usually back between Nov 14 and Jan 18
Around them in the standings
The teams just above and below them in the East, by projected wins.
- Philadelphia49 projected wins · 94%
- Atlanta48 projected wins · 93%
- Cleveland46 projected wins · 87%
- Toronto45 projected wins · 86%
- Miami42 projected wins · 72%
The roster by type of player
Share of the team's minutes, by the player type each played like last season, next to the league average.
- Star creator
- Playmaking guard
- Scoring wing
- Spot-up shooter
- Low-usage role player
- Rim-running big
- Interior big
- New this season
Pick the rest of the games yourself in the playoff predictor
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
Sitting a player hands his minutes to the rest of the rotation; moving minutes yourself takes them from, or gives them to, the end of the bench. The team's rating follows who plays the minutes. Ratings and player types are ours, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.