NBA player projections

Where each player is likely to be over the next five seasons, based on what happened to players the same age. Plus the five players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Victor Wembanyama San Antonio · age 22

Overall
+6.3
Offense
+2.2
Defense
+4.1

Past seasons, and the next five

0+2+4+6+8+10age 20age 22Todayage 23age 25age 27+0.6 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2388%age 2484%age 2580%age 2674%age 2771%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Victor Wembanyama is rated +7.0

  • +7.0 means his teams score about 7.0 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is defense: +4.4 there (1st of 337), +2.5 on offense (14th of 337).
  • It's built on 2,100 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's up 1.2 since opening night, when he was at +5.8.
  • He's playing about 30 minutes a game for San Antonio, and last season he played like an interior big.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay San Antonio's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +7.0

San Antonio wins
58
Playoffs
99%
Title
17%

Try it with the whole San Antonio rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Dwight Howard 2008-09 · age 23Then+4.2+1+6.2+2+6.1+3+3.4+4+2.2+5+3.9
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo 2017-18 · age 23Then+3.0+1+4.8+2+5.5+3+5.0+4+4.5+5+3.9
  • Anthony Davis 2014-15 · age 22Then+4.0+1+1.6+2+1.4+3+3.1+4+2.8+5+2.4
  • Jayson Tatum 2019-20 · age 22Then+4.5+1+4.0+2+5.8+3+4.6+4+3.4+5+3.3
  • Kristaps Porziņģis 2017-18 · age 22Then+2.0+1out+2+3.6+3+1.5+4+0.2+5+2.3

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See San Antonio's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.