Portland Trail Blazers forecast
Why the Portland Trail Blazers are where they are, and a rotation you can play with: move minutes, sit a player, see what changes. Updated every night.
Why Portland is at 65% to make the playoffs
- 6-3 so far, heading for about 45 wins (37 to 53 in most of the seasons we played out).
- Plays like a team 3.6 points a game better than average, the 14th best rating in the league.
- 73 games left, and one of the harder schedules: the 5th toughest of 30.
- The rating leans most on Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard and Deni Avdija. Sit one of them in the rotation below to see how much he matters.
Our forecast
- Projected wins
- 45
- Playoffs
- 65%
- Title
- 1%
With Sharpe, Morant and Krejčí back
Replaying the season…
Play with the rotation
Every player starts at the minutes he's been playing and the rating we give him. Change either one, or sit someone, and we replay the rest of the season 2,000 times.
| Player | Overall | Min/game | Out? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija Star creator | Overall+1.3 | 32 min | |
| Damian Lillard New this season | Overall+1.6 | 29 min | |
| Toumani Camara Spot-up shooter | Overall+0.7 | 27 min | |
| Jrue Holiday Playmaking guard | Overall+2.9 | 26 min | |
| Donovan Clingan Rim-running big | Overall+1.3 | 25 min | |
| Scoot Henderson Playmaking guard | Overall+0.4 | 22 min | |
| Sidy Cissoko Spot-up shooter | Overall−0.7 | 21 min | |
| Chris Youngblood New this season | Overall+0.7 | 13 min | |
| Hansen Yang New this season | Overall−1.2 | 10 min | |
| End of the bench | 35 min |
Hurt right now
The forecast at the top of the page counts these players out for the rest of the season. Here they come back on the date shown, at the minutes they were playing before. Change a date to see what it does.
- Shaedon Sharpe knee surgery · 9 games missed · usually back between Nov 27 and Feb 18
- Ja Morant hamstring strain · 5 games missed · usually back between Nov 13 and Dec 1
- Vít Krejčí ankle fracture · 2 games missed · usually back between Nov 27 and Jan 9
Around them in the standings
The teams just above and below them in the West, by projected wins.
- Denver51 projected wins · 92%
- LA Lakers51 projected wins · 91%
- Portland45 projected wins · 65%
- Golden State45 projected wins · 61%
- Phoenix39 projected wins · 28%
The roster by type of player
Share of the team's minutes, by the player type each played like last season, next to the league average.
- Star creator
- Playmaking guard
- Scoring wing
- Spot-up shooter
- Low-usage role player
- Rim-running big
- Interior big
- New this season
Pick the rest of the games yourself in the playoff predictor
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
Sitting a player hands his minutes to the rest of the rotation; moving minutes yourself takes them from, or gives them to, the end of the bench. The team's rating follows who plays the minutes. Ratings and player types are ours, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.