Miami Heat forecast
Why the Miami Heat are where they are, and a rotation you can play with: move minutes, sit a player, see what changes. Updated every night.
Why Miami is at 72% to make the playoffs
- 4-6 so far, heading for about 42 wins (34 to 49 in most of the seasons we played out).
- Plays like a team 2.3 points a game better than average, the 16th best rating in the league.
- 72 games left, and one of the easier schedules: the 4th easiest of 30.
- The rating leans most on Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Davion Mitchell. Sit one of them in the rotation below to see how much he matters.
Our forecast
- Projected wins
- 42
- Playoffs
- 72%
- Title
- <1%
Move a rating or minutes, or sit a player, to see what changes.
Play with the rotation
Every player starts at the minutes he's been playing and the rating we give him. Change either one, or sit someone, and we replay the rest of the season 2,000 times.
| Player | Overall | Min/game | Out? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell Playmaking guard | Overall+1.9 | 34 min | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo Interior big | Overall+3.4 | 32 min | |
| Bam Adebayo Interior big | Overall+2.8 | 32 min | |
| Pelle Larsson Scoring wing | Overall+0.4 | 29 min | |
| Andrew Wiggins Scoring wing | Overall−1.2 | 25 min | |
| Klay Thompson Spot-up shooter | Overall−1.7 | 23 min | |
| Bobby Portis Jr. Scoring wing | Overall+0.1 | 20 min | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. Spot-up shooter | Overall−0.5 | 15 min | |
| Nikola Jović Scoring wing | Overall−0.4 | 12 min | |
| Ryan Conwell New this season | Overall−0.3 | 10 min | |
| Dru Smith Playmaking guard | Overall−0.1 | 8 min | |
| End of the bench | 0 min |
Around them in the standings
The teams just above and below them in the East, by projected wins.
The roster by type of player
Share of the team's minutes, by the player type each played like last season, next to the league average.
- Star creator
- Playmaking guard
- Scoring wing
- Spot-up shooter
- Low-usage role player
- Rim-running big
- Interior big
- New this season
Pick the rest of the games yourself in the playoff predictor
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
Sitting a player hands his minutes to the rest of the rotation; moving minutes yourself takes them from, or gives them to, the end of the bench. The team's rating follows who plays the minutes. Ratings and player types are ours, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.