Houston Rockets forecast
Why the Houston Rockets are where they are, and a rotation you can play with: move minutes, sit a player, see what changes. Updated every night.
Why Houston is at 97% to make the playoffs
- 7-3 so far, heading for about 55 wins (48 to 62 in most of the seasons we played out).
- Plays like a team 7.9 points a game better than average, the 5th best rating in the league.
- 72 games left, and one of the easier schedules: the 8th easiest of 30.
- The rating leans most on Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun. Sit one of them in the rotation below to see how much he matters.
Our forecast
- Projected wins
- 55
- Playoffs
- 97%
- Title
- 8%
With Capela back
Replaying the season…
Play with the rotation
Every player starts at the minutes he's been playing and the rating we give him. Change either one, or sit someone, and we replay the rest of the season 2,000 times.
| Player | Overall | Min/game | Out? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. Low-usage role player | Overall+2.6 | 34 min | |
| Alperen Sengun Interior big | Overall+2.1 | 34 min | |
| Kevin Durant Star creator | Overall+1.6 | 33 min | |
| Amen Thompson Interior big | Overall+1.5 | 33 min | |
| Fred VanVleet New this season | Overall+2.5 | 29 min | |
| Tari Eason Low-usage role player | Overall+1.3 | 24 min | |
| Marcus Smart Spot-up shooter | Overall+2.9 | 22 min | |
| Reed Sheppard Playmaking guard | Overall−0.5 | 20 min | |
| Bogdan Bogdanović New this season | Overall+0.5 | 11 min | |
| End of the bench | 0 min |
Hurt right now
The forecast at the top of the page counts these players out for the rest of the season. Here they come back on the date shown, at the minutes they were playing before. Change a date to see what it does.
- Clint Capela ankle sprain · 3 games missed · usually back between Nov 11 and Nov 25
Around them in the standings
The teams just above and below them in the West, by projected wins.
- Oklahoma City59 projected wins · 99%
- San Antonio58 projected wins · 99%
- Houston55 projected wins · 97%
- Minnesota54 projected wins · 96%
- Denver51 projected wins · 92%
The roster by type of player
Share of the team's minutes, by the player type each played like last season, next to the league average.
- Star creator
- Playmaking guard
- Scoring wing
- Spot-up shooter
- Low-usage role player
- Rim-running big
- Interior big
- New this season
Pick the rest of the games yourself in the playoff predictor
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
Sitting a player hands his minutes to the rest of the rotation; moving minutes yourself takes them from, or gives them to, the end of the bench. The team's rating follows who plays the minutes. Ratings and player types are ours, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.