Orlando Magic forecast

Why the Orlando Magic are where they are, and a rotation you can play with: move minutes, sit a player, see what changes. Updated every night.

Why Orlando is at 32% to make the playoffs

  • 2-7 so far, heading for about 35 wins (27 to 43 in most of the seasons we played out).
  • Plays like a team 0.3 points a game worse than average, the 10th worst rating in the league.
  • 73 games left, and one of the easier schedules: the 3rd easiest of 30.
  • The rating leans most on Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze. Sit one of them in the rotation below to see how much he matters.

Our forecast

Projected wins
35
Playoffs
32%
Title
<1%

With Bane, Banchero and Suggs back

Replaying the season…

Play with the rotation

Every player starts at the minutes he's been playing and the rating we give him. Change either one, or sit someone, and we replay the rest of the season 2,000 times.

PlayerTypeOverallMin/gameOut?
Franz Wagner Star creatorStar creatorOverall+1.937 min
Wendell Carter Jr. Low-usage role playerLow-usage role playerOverall+0.734 min
Tristan da Silva Spot-up shooterSpot-up shooterOverall−0.631 min
Anthony Black Scoring wingScoring wingOverall+0.330 min
Jase Richardson Scoring wingScoring wingOverall−1.623 min
Jamal Cain Low-usage role playerLow-usage role playerOverall−1.220 min
Jevon Carter Spot-up shooterSpot-up shooterOverall−0.814 min
Alex Morales New this seasonNew this seasonOverall+0.59 min
Goga Bitadze Rim-running bigRim-running bigOverall+1.59 min
Nikola Vučević Low-usage role playerLow-usage role playerOverall+1.19 min
End of the bench24 min

Hurt right now

The forecast at the top of the page counts these players out for the rest of the season. Here they come back on the date shown, at the minutes they were playing before. Change a date to see what it does.

  • Desmond Bane illness · 1 game missed · usually back between Nov 10 and Nov 11
  • Paolo Banchero ankle sprain · 7 games missed · usually back between Nov 11 and Dec 16
  • Jalen Suggs knee contusion · 6 games missed · usually back between Nov 13 and Dec 2

Around them in the standings

The teams just above and below them in the East, by projected wins.

  1. Toronto45 projected wins · 86%
  2. Miami42 projected wins · 72%
  3. Orlando35 projected wins · 32%
  4. Charlotte32 projected wins · 19%
  5. Indiana30 projected wins · 11%

The roster by type of player

Share of the team's minutes, by the player type each played like last season, next to the league average.

Orlando
League average
  • Star creator
  • Playmaking guard
  • Scoring wing
  • Spot-up shooter
  • Low-usage role player
  • Rim-running big
  • Interior big
  • New this season

Pick the rest of the games yourself in the playoff predictor

Sitting a player hands his minutes to the rest of the rotation; moving minutes yourself takes them from, or gives them to, the end of the bench. The team's rating follows who plays the minutes. Ratings and player types are ours, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.