Golden State Warriors forecast
Why the Golden State Warriors are where they are, and a rotation you can play with: move minutes, sit a player, see what changes. Updated every night.
Why Golden State is at 61% to make the playoffs
- 7-3 so far, heading for about 45 wins (37 to 52 in most of the seasons we played out).
- Plays like a team 2.9 points a game better than average, the 15th best rating in the league.
- 72 games left, against a schedule about as tough as anyone's.
- The rating leans most on Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski and Gui Santos. Sit one of them in the rotation below to see how much he matters.
Our forecast
- Projected wins
- 45
- Playoffs
- 61%
- Title
- <1%
With Moody back
Replaying the season…
Play with the rotation
Every player starts at the minutes he's been playing and the rating we give him. Change either one, or sit someone, and we replay the rest of the season 2,000 times.
| Player | Overall | Min/game | Out? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski Scoring wing | Overall+2.0 | 31 min | |
| Yaxel Lendeborg New this season | Overall−0.9 | 30 min | |
| Stephen Curry Star creator | Overall+2.9 | 27 min | |
| Draymond Green Playmaking guard | Overall−0.8 | 25 min | |
| De'Anthony Melton Playmaking guard | Overall+1.2 | 20 min | |
| Georges Niang New this season | Overall+1.2 | 19 min | |
| Gui Santos Low-usage role player | Overall+1.6 | 17 min | |
| Al Horford Spot-up shooter | Overall+1.4 | 16 min | |
| Brandon Williams Star creator | Overall−0.7 | 16 min | |
| Will Richard Spot-up shooter | Overall−1.0 | 16 min | |
| Gary Payton II Low-usage role player | Overall+0.8 | 12 min | |
| Charles Bassey New this season | Overall−1.1 | 11 min | |
| End of the bench | 0 min |
Hurt right now
The forecast at the top of the page counts these players out for the rest of the season. Here they come back on the date shown, at the minutes they were playing before. Change a date to see what it does.
- Moses Moody knee surgery · 10 games missed · usually back between Nov 27 and Mar 12
- Jimmy Butler III ACL · 10 games missed · not expected back this season
Around them in the standings
The teams just above and below them in the West, by projected wins.
The roster by type of player
Share of the team's minutes, by the player type each played like last season, next to the league average.
- Star creator
- Playmaking guard
- Scoring wing
- Spot-up shooter
- Low-usage role player
- Rim-running big
- Interior big
- New this season
Pick the rest of the games yourself in the playoff predictor
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
Sitting a player hands his minutes to the rest of the rotation; moving minutes yourself takes them from, or gives them to, the end of the bench. The team's rating follows who plays the minutes. Ratings and player types are ours, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.