Oklahoma City Thunder forecast
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder are where they are, and a rotation you can play with: move minutes, sit a player, see what changes. Updated every night.
Why Oklahoma City is at 99% to make the playoffs
- 8-2 so far, heading for about 59 wins (52 to 66 in most of the seasons we played out).
- Plays like a team 9.6 points a game better than average, the 2nd best rating in the league.
- 72 games left, and one of the easier schedules: the 6th easiest of 30.
- The rating leans most on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell and Alex Caruso. Sit one of them in the rotation below to see how much he matters.
Our forecast
- Projected wins
- 59
- Playoffs
- 99%
- Title
- 17%
With Williams, Holmgren, Williams, Wallace and Topić back
Replaying the season…
Play with the rotation
Every player starts at the minutes he's been playing and the rating we give him. Change either one, or sit someone, and we replay the rest of the season 2,000 times.
| Player | Overall | Min/game | Out? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Star creator | Overall+6.0 | 33 min | |
| Ajay Mitchell Scoring wing | Overall+3.3 | 27 min | |
| Jared McCain Spot-up shooter | Overall−0.4 | 25 min | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein Rim-running big | Overall+2.9 | 24 min | |
| Aday Mara New this season | Overall+0.4 | 20 min | |
| Alex Caruso Spot-up shooter | Overall+4.5 | 18 min | |
| Kenrich Williams Low-usage role player | Overall+0.6 | 18 min | |
| Bennett Stirtz New this season | Overall−0.5 | 18 min | |
| Micah Peavy Spot-up shooter | Overall+1.5 | 17 min | |
| Josh Dix New this season | Overall+0.3 | 15 min | |
| End of the bench | 25 min |
Hurt right now
The forecast at the top of the page counts these players out for the rest of the season. Here they come back on the date shown, at the minutes they were playing before. Change a date to see what it does.
- Jalen Williams lower leg other · 7 games missed · usually back between Nov 15 and Jan 18
- Chet Holmgren knee soreness · 7 games missed · usually back between Nov 15 and Jan 7
- Jaylin Williams back/neck soreness · 3 games missed · usually back between Nov 10 and Nov 23
- Cason Wallace shoulder soreness · 7 games missed · usually back between Nov 18 and Mar 16
- Nikola Topić back/neck surgery · 10 games missed · usually back between Nov 25 and Mar 10
Around them in the standings
The teams just above and below them in the West, by projected wins.
- Oklahoma City59 projected wins · 99%
- San Antonio58 projected wins · 99%
- Houston55 projected wins · 97%
- Minnesota54 projected wins · 96%
- Denver51 projected wins · 92%
The roster by type of player
Share of the team's minutes, by the player type each played like last season, next to the league average.
- Star creator
- Playmaking guard
- Scoring wing
- Spot-up shooter
- Low-usage role player
- Rim-running big
- Interior big
- New this season
Pick the rest of the games yourself in the playoff predictor
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
Sitting a player hands his minutes to the rest of the rotation; moving minutes yourself takes them from, or gives them to, the end of the bench. The team's rating follows who plays the minutes. Ratings and player types are ours, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.