Who wins the awards
Who we think wins MVP, Defensive Player, Most Improved and Rookie of the Year, and why. Built on how voters picked the last 20 years.
Only 7 games in. This early, the MVP favorite has gone on to win 7 of the last 20 seasons, so treat this as a first look. As of Nov 9.
MVP
Why: 38.3 points a game, best player on a 6-2 team, 8.1 assists
- Victor Wembanyama · San Antonio8%
Why: 25.7 points a game, our rating +6.2, best player on a 5-2 team
- Giannis Antetokounmpo · Miami6%
Why: 28.4 points a game, 12.3 rebounds, our rating +3.7
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Oklahoma City5%
Why: 28.4 points a game, best player on a 5-2 team, our rating +6.0
- Alperen Sengun · Houston5%
Why: best player on a 7-1 team, 23.3 points a game, 7.8 assists
At season's end this picked 15 of the last 20 MVPs. The top scorer on the best team picked 12.
Defensive Player of the Year
Why: 4.0 blocks, our defense rating +4.0, 10.7 rebounds
- Chet Holmgren · Oklahoma City2%
Why: 3.0 blocks, our defense rating +3.3, 9.3 rebounds
- Walker Kessler · LA Lakers2%
Why: 2.5 blocks, 10.5 rebounds, team is 6-2
- Donovan Clingan · Portland1%
Why: 2.3 blocks, 10.5 rebounds, team is 5-1
- Rudy Gobert · Minnesota1%
Why: our defense rating +3.8, 12.0 rebounds, team is 5-3
Picked 9 of the last 20 at season's end, and had the winner in its top three 16 times.
Most Improved
Why: +6.5 points from last season, +1.4 assists from last season, +2.3 rebounds from last season
- Cooper Flagg · Dallas5%
Why: +4.1 points from last season, +2.0 assists from last season, 21.0 a game last season
- Scottie Barnes · Toronto4%
Why: +6.3 points from last season, 18.1 a game last season, played 7 of 7
- Paul George · Boston4%
Why: +3.3 points from last season, +1.4 assists from last season, 17.3 a game last season
- Alperen Sengun · Houston4%
Why: +3.0 points from last season, +1.7 assists from last season, 20.4 a game last season
The hard one. Picked 6 of the last 20 at season's end; the biggest scoring jump picked 4.
Rookie of the Year
Why: 26.1 points a game, 6.3 assists, 37 minutes a game
- Cameron Boozer · Memphis23%
Why: 17.4 points a game, 10.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists
- Yaxel Lendeborg · Golden State14%
Why: 21.5 points a game, 7.0 rebounds, 32 minutes a game
- Caleb Wilson · Chicago10%
Why: 21.6 points a game, 34 minutes a game, 6.7 rebounds
- AJ Dybantsa · Washington6%
Why: 19.0 points a game, 30 minutes a game, played 3 of 7
Picked 17 of the last 20 at season's end, and 18 by the season's 60% mark.
Questions
Who is the favorite for NBA MVP this season?
Luka Dončić of the LA Lakers, with a 43% chance in our forecast as of Nov 9. Victor Wembanyama is next at 8%. It's early, and the order moves as the season goes.
Who is the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year?
Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio, with a 81% chance in our forecast as of Nov 9. Chet Holmgren is next at 2%. It's early, and the order moves as the season goes.
Who is the favorite for Rookie of the Year?
Darius Acuff Jr. of the Sacramento, with a 30% chance in our forecast as of Nov 9. Cameron Boozer is next at 23%. It's early, and the order moves as the season goes.
Who is the favorite for Most Improved Player?
Dylan Harper of the San Antonio, with a 8% chance in our forecast as of Nov 9. Cooper Flagg is next at 5%. It's early, and the order moves as the season goes.
How do you work out the award chances?
We trained a model on 20 seasons of award voting. It looks at what each player has done so far, from scoring and rebounds to our ratings and his team's record, and learns how much voters cared about each. At season's end this picked 15 of the last 20 MVPs. The top scorer on the best team picked 12.
Chances are ours: a model fit to 20 seasons of award voting, from game logs and our ratings. Points, rebounds and assists come from game logs. Not affiliated with the NBA.