Who's making the NBA playoffs

Every team's season, played 10,000 times with the players on today's rosters.

New numbers every night, once the last game ends. Picked the winner 66.2% of the time in 10,422 past games it hadn't seen. How we grade it

nov 8 results · forecast as of 2026-11-09

  • BKN 93, DAL 130 → Dallas playoffs 16% → 20%
  • MIA 114, SAC 108 → Miami playoffs 70% → 72%
  • NOP 123, LAC 139 → New Orleans playoffs 8% → 6%
  • LAL 121, DET 116 → LA Lakers playoffs 89% → 91%
  • PHI 127, CHI 121 → Philadelphia playoffs 93% → 94%
  • UTA 100, MIN 115 → Minnesota playoffs 95% → 96%
  • BOS 117, MIL 97 → Boston playoffs unchanged

Who's in, who's out, who's on the bubble

Each bar is where 80% of simulated seasons end up. The blue dashed line is about where the 6th seed lands, so teams to its right skip the play-in. The grey one is the last play-in spot.

7 teams are 95% or better to make it. The East's bubble is Orlando (32%) and Miami (72%). The West's bubble is Golden State (61%) and Portland (65%).

EastPlayoffs203040506070Projected wins →play-in6th seedBoston: 58 projected wins (51 to 65), playoffs >99%Boston>99%Detroit: 57 projected wins (49 to 64), playoffs >99%Detroit>99%New York: 51 projected wins (43 to 58), playoffs 97%New York97%Philadelphia: 49 projected wins (41 to 56), playoffs 94%Philadelphia94%Atlanta: 48 projected wins (40 to 55), playoffs 93%Atlanta93%Cleveland: 46 projected wins (38 to 53), playoffs 87%Cleveland87%Toronto: 45 projected wins (37 to 53), playoffs 86%Toronto86%Miami: 42 projected wins (34 to 49), playoffs 72%Miami72%Orlando: 35 projected wins (27 to 43), playoffs 32%Orlando32%Charlotte: 32 projected wins (24 to 40), playoffs 19%Charlotte19%Indiana: 30 projected wins (23 to 37), playoffs 11%Indiana11%Brooklyn: 26 projected wins (19 to 33), playoffs 3%Brooklyn3%Chicago: 24 projected wins (17 to 32), playoffs 2%Chicago2%Milwaukee: 24 projected wins (17 to 31), playoffs 2%Milwaukee2%Washington: 23 projected wins (17 to 30), playoffs 1%Washington1%
WestPlayoffs203040506070Projected wins →play-in6th seedOklahoma City: 59 projected wins (52 to 66), playoffs 99%Oklahoma City99%San Antonio: 58 projected wins (51 to 65), playoffs 99%San Antonio99%Houston: 55 projected wins (48 to 62), playoffs 97%Houston97%Minnesota: 54 projected wins (46 to 61), playoffs 96%Minnesota96%Denver: 51 projected wins (44 to 59), playoffs 92%Denver92%LA Lakers: 51 projected wins (44 to 59), playoffs 91%LA Lakers91%Portland: 45 projected wins (37 to 53), playoffs 65%Portland65%Golden State: 45 projected wins (37 to 52), playoffs 61%Golden State61%Phoenix: 39 projected wins (31 to 47), playoffs 28%Phoenix28%Memphis: 39 projected wins (31 to 47), playoffs 29%Memphis29%Dallas: 37 projected wins (30 to 45), playoffs 20%Dallas20%LA Clippers: 36 projected wins (29 to 44), playoffs 18%LA Clippers18%New Orleans: 33 projected wins (25 to 40), playoffs 6%New Orleans6%Sacramento: 22 projected wins (15 to 29), playoffs <1%Sacramento<1%Utah: 21 projected wins (15 to 28), playoffs <1%Utah<1%

What changed after the Nov 8 games

Playoff odds before and after the latest forecast, for every team that moved at least a point. The ratings update from every game played, so a team can move without playing, or rise after a loss.

Biggest rise: Dallas, 16% to 20%, after beating Brooklyn. Biggest drop: New Orleans, 8% to 6%, after losing to LA Clippers.

0%25%50%75%100%Playoff odds →Dallas: playoffs 16% → 20%Dallas16% → 20%Miami: playoffs 70% → 72%Miami70% → 72%LA Clippers: playoffs 16% → 18%LA Clippers16% → 18%LA Lakers: playoffs 89% → 91%LA Lakers89% → 91%Orlando: playoffs 33% → 32%Orlando33% → 32%Phoenix: playoffs 29% → 28%Phoenix29% → 28%Brooklyn: playoffs 5% → 3%Brooklyn5% → 3%Golden State: playoffs 63% → 61%Golden State63% → 61%Portland: playoffs 67% → 65%Portland67% → 65%New Orleans: playoffs 8% → 6%New Orleans8% → 6%
  • Before
  • After, up
  • After, down
NBA Projected Standings and Playoff Odds | Pettigrew Lab, forecast as of 2026-11-09
TeamRecordProjected winsPlayoffsTitleAfter Nov 8 games
Oklahoma CityOKC8-2
59
99%17%no change
San AntonioSAS8-2
58
99%17%no change
BostonBOS8-2
58
>99%18%no change
DetroitDET6-3
57
>99%15%no change
HoustonHOU7-3
55
97%8%down, 98% → 97%
MinnesotaMIN8-3
54
96%7%up, 95% → 96%
DenverDEN5-3
51
92%4%no change
LA LakersLAL9-2
51
91%2%up, 89% → 91%
New YorkNYK5-4
51
97%5%no change
PhiladelphiaPHI9-2
49
94%1%up, 93% → 94%
AtlantaATL7-4
48
93%2%down, 94% → 93%
ClevelandCLE5-5
46
87%1%down, 88% → 87%
PortlandPOR6-3
45
65%1%down, 67% → 65%
TorontoTOR5-4
45
86%1%no change
Golden StateGSW7-3
45
61%<1%down, 63% → 61%
MiamiMIA4-6
42
72%<1%up, 70% → 72%
PhoenixPHX3-5
39
28%<1%down, 29% → 28%
MemphisMEM6-3
39
29%<1%no change
DallasDAL6-4
37
20%<1%up, 16% → 20%
LA ClippersLAC2-7
36
18%<1%up, 16% → 18%
OrlandoORL2-7
35
32%<1%down, 33% → 32%
New OrleansNOP4-6
33
6%<1%down, 8% → 6%
CharlotteCHA3-7
32
19%<1%no change
IndianaIND3-7
30
11%<1%no change
BrooklynBKN2-8
26
3%<1%down, 5% → 3%
ChicagoCHI1-8
24
2%<1%no change
MilwaukeeMIL1-9
24
2%<1%no change
WashingtonWAS4-6
23
1%<1%no change
SacramentoSAC1-9
22
<1%<1%no change
UtahUTA1-9
21
<1%<1%no change

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

Questions

How does this NBA forecast work?

We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Each game's chance comes from team ratings built from the players on today's rosters, weighted by the minutes they're expected to play, plus home court. A team's playoff odds are the share of those seasons where it gets in.

How accurate is it?

On 10,422 past games it hadn't seen, it picked the winner 66.2% of the time. That's a little better than 538's old Elo, and about level with their RAPTOR model on the same games. Grading on this season started with the November 4 games.

How often does it update?

Every night, once the last game ends. A team can move on a night it didn't play, because every game played changes the ratings and the schedule ahead.

Why is a team with a better record behind one with a worse record?

Early in the season a record is mostly luck. The forecast leans on how well a team has actually played, with the players it has now, and on who it still has to play. A 6-1 start against weak teams can rate below a 2-5 start against good ones.

Is this betting advice?

No. It forecasts who makes the playoffs and how far teams go. It doesn't set lines on tonight's games and doesn't compare itself to sportsbook odds.

Our forecast, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA. Shaded bar: where 80% of simulated seasons land. Pick the games yourself in the playoff predictor