Dru Smith projections

Dru Smith's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Dru Smith Miami · age 28

Overall
−0.1
Offense
−1.3
Defense
+1.2

Past seasons, and the next five

-4-20+2+4Todayage 29age 30age 31age 32age 33−0.6 in 5 seasons

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2986%age 3077%age 3168%age 3257%age 3347%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Dru Smith is rated −0.1

  • −0.1 means his teams score about 0.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 201st best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is defense: +1.2 there (47th of 337), −1.3 on offense (318th of 337).
  • It's built on 1,200 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's up 0.5 since opening night, when he was at −0.6.
  • He's playing about 8 minutes a game for Miami, and last season he played like a playmaking guard.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Miami's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: −0.1

Miami wins
42
Playoffs
72%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole Miami rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Ronnie Price 2009-10 · age 27Then−0.6+1−0.2+2+0.2+3−0.3+4−0.6+5+0.9
  • Luke Walton 2008-09 · age 29Then+0.7+1+0.1+2−0.4+3+0.2+40.0+5out
  • Luke Ridnour 2008-09 · age 28Then+0.3+1−0.1+2−0.1+3−0.2+40.0+5−1.8
  • Matthew Dellavedova 2019-20 · age 29Then+1.1+1+1.0+2out+3−1.1+4out+5out
  • Larry Nance Jr. 2020-21 · age 28Then−0.2+1−0.7+2+2.0+3+0.9+4−0.7+5−2.0

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Miami's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.