Pelle Larsson projections

Pelle Larsson's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Pelle Larsson Miami · age 25

Overall
+0.8
Offense
+0.5
Defense
+0.3

Past seasons, and the next five

-4-20+2+4age 24Todayage 27age 29age 30−0.0 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2688%age 2782%age 2875%age 2968%age 3060%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Pelle Larsson is rated +0.4

  • +0.4 means his teams score about 0.4 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 167th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is defense: +0.5 there (128th of 337), −0.1 on offense (206th of 337).
  • It's built on 2,050 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's about where he started the season (+0.6).
  • He's playing about 30 minutes a game for Miami, and last season he played like a scoring wing.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Miami's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +0.4

Miami wins
42
Playoffs
72%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole Miami rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Derrick White 2019-20 · age 25Then+1.1+1+1.1+2+3.3+3+4.8+4+4.8+5+2.7
  • Tyler Johnson 2016-17 · age 25Then+0.1+1+0.1+2−1.0+3−2.2+4−0.8+5+0.5
  • Luol Deng 2008-09 · age 24Then+0.1+1+2.0+2+3.4+3+3.6+4+1.9+5+1.3
  • Boris Diaw 2006-07 · age 25Then+0.6+1−0.3+2+1.0+3+2.6+4+0.2+50.0
  • CJ Miles 2011-12 · age 25Then+0.5+1+0.8+2+1.5+3+2.4+4+0.6+5+0.2

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Miami's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.