Giannis Antetokounmpo projections

Giannis Antetokounmpo's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Miami · age 31

Overall
+3.6
Offense
+3.2
Defense
+0.4

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-20+2+4+6+8age 27age 29age 31Todayage 32age 34age 36−1.2 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 3282%age 3367%age 3452%age 3540%age 3629%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Giannis Antetokounmpo is rated +3.4

  • +3.4 means his teams score about 3.4 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 14th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +2.8 there (9th of 337), +0.6 on defense (105th of 337).
  • It's built on 1,250 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's down 1.4 since opening night, when he was at +4.8.
  • He's playing about 33 minutes a game for Miami, and last season he played like an interior big.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Miami's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +3.4

Miami wins
42
Playoffs
72%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole Miami rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Kevin Durant 2020-21 · age 32Then+2.4+1+5.2+2+4.7+3+2.5+4+2.9+5+1.1
  • James Harden 2019-20 · age 30Then+3.4+1+3.3+2+2.4+3+2.3+4+2.1+5+2.0
  • Dwyane Wade 2011-12 · age 30Then+3.6+1+3.9+2+1.1+3−0.3+4−0.1+5−1.7
  • Jimmy Butler III 2019-20 · age 30Then+3.3+1+3.0+2+3.0+3+2.0+4+3.3+5+3.9
  • Kobe Bryant 2010-11 · age 32Then+2.2+1+1.7+2+1.4+3+1.2+4−1.4+5−2.1

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Miami's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.