Chet Holmgren projections

Chet Holmgren's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City · age 24

Overall
+5.0
Offense
+1.7
Defense
+3.4

Chet is out with knee soreness. We expect him back around Dec 2, usually somewhere between Nov 15 and Jan 7, going by how long that injury has kept players out since 2018. Move his return date on the team page

Past seasons, and the next five

+2+4+6+8+10age 22age 24Todayage 25age 27age 29+0.1 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2588%age 2682%age 2776%age 2870%age 2963%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Chet Holmgren is rated +4.9

  • +4.9 means his teams score about 4.9 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 5th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is defense: +3.3 there (3rd of 337), +1.6 on offense (38th of 337).
  • It's built on 2,100 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's about where he started the season (+5.0).
  • He isn't in Oklahoma City's rotation right now, so the forecast gives him no minutes.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Oklahoma City's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +4.9

Chet isn't playing right now, so the forecast gives him no minutes and his rating can't move Oklahoma City. Give him minutes on the team page to try it.

Try it with the whole Oklahoma City rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • LaMarcus Aldridge 2010-11 · age 25Then+4.1+1+3.0+2+1.7+3+2.9+4+3.8+5+3.2
  • Kristaps Porziņģis 2019-20 · age 24Then+3.6+1+1.5+2+0.2+3+2.3+4+2.8+5+1.2
  • Kawhi Leonard 2015-16 · age 25Then+5.8+1+4.9+2+2.6+3+0.7+4+3.9+5+5.7
  • Rudy Gobert 2016-17 · age 25Then+5.0+1+5.1+2+2.6+3+2.1+4+5.5+5+5.2
  • Serge Ibaka 2013-14 · age 24Then+3.2+1+2.7+2+2.3+3+2.0+4+1.7+5+0.6

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Oklahoma City's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.