Larry Nance Jr. projections
Larry Nance Jr.'s rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.
Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.
Larry Nance Jr. Indiana · age 33
- Overall
- −1.7
- Offense
- −1.5
- Defense
- −0.2
Past seasons, and the next five
Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.
Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.
| age 3475% | age 3560% | age 3644% | age 3729% | age 3819% |
Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.
Why Larry Nance Jr. is rated −1.2
- −1.2 means his teams score about 1.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 298th best of the 337 players we rate.
- It comes from both ends: −1.0 on offense (299th of 337) and −0.2 on defense (217th of 337).
- It's built on 550 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more. That isn't many minutes, so his rating can still move a lot.
- He's about where he started the season (−1.5).
- He's playing about 16 minutes a game for Indiana.
What if he plays better, or worse?
Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Indiana's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.
Our rating: −1.2
- Indiana wins
- 30
- Playoffs
- 11%
- Title
- <1%
Players who looked like him at this age
Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:
- Al Jefferson 2016-17 · age 32Then−1.7+1−0.7+2out+3out+4out+5out
- Nick Van Exel 2005-06 · age 34Then−1.8+1out+2out+3out+4out+5out
- David Lee 2015-16 · age 33Then−1.9+1+0.4+2out+3out+4out+5out
- Chris Kaman 2014-15 · age 33Then−1.5+1−1.7+2out+3out+4out+5out
- Raymond Felton 2017-18 · age 34Then−1.3+1−0.2+2out+3out+4out+5out
Playing like him today
The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.
- Noah ClowneyBKN · −1.7
- Ziaire WilliamsLAL · −1.7
- Dennis SchröderCHA · −1.8
- Klay ThompsonMIA · −1.9
- Caleb MartinDAL · −1.3
See Indiana's odds and the rest of the roster
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.