Kevin Durant projections

Kevin Durant's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Kevin Durant Houston · age 38

Overall
+1.6
Offense
+2.4
Defense
−0.9

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-4-20+2+4+6age 33age 35age 37Todayage 39age 40−1.0 in 2 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 3962%age 4033%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season. Too few players have played this long to project further.

Why Kevin Durant is rated +1.6

  • +1.6 means his teams score about 1.6 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 81st best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +2.3 there (17th of 337), −0.8 on defense (277th of 337).
  • It's built on 3,100 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's up 0.6 since opening night, when he was at +1.0.
  • He's playing about 34 minutes a game for Houston, and last season he played like a star creator.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Houston's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +1.6

Houston wins
55
Playoffs
97%
Title
8%

Try it with the whole Houston rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • LeBron James 2021-22 · age 37Then+2.2+1+2.9+2+4.4+3−0.3+4−0.4+5out
  • Dirk Nowitzki 2014-15 · age 37Then+3.0+1+2.8+2+1.8+3+0.4+4−0.9+5out
  • Ray Allen 2012-13 · age 37Then−0.1+1−0.2+2out+3out+4out+5out
  • Shaquille O'Neal 2008-09 · age 37Then+0.9+1+0.1+2+2.7+3out+4out+5out
  • Steve Nash 2012-13 · age 39Then+1.7+1−0.1+2out+3out+4out+5out

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Houston's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.