Jabari Smith Jr. projections

Jabari Smith Jr.'s rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Jabari Smith Jr. Houston · age 23

Overall
+2.6
Offense
+1.0
Defense
+1.5

Past seasons, and the next five

-4-20+2+4+6age 20age 22Todayage 25age 27age 28+0.3 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2488%age 2583%age 2677%age 2772%age 2867%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Jabari Smith Jr. is rated +2.6

  • +2.6 means his teams score about 2.6 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 31st best of the 337 players we rate.
  • It comes from both ends: +1.1 on offense (68th of 337) and +1.5 on defense (33rd of 337).
  • It's built on 3,000 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's up 1.2 since opening night, when he was at +1.4.
  • He's playing about 35 minutes a game for Houston, and last season he played like a low-usage role player.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Houston's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +2.6

Houston wins
55
Playoffs
97%
Title
8%

Try it with the whole Houston rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Ersan Ilyasova 2009-10 · age 23Then+2.2+1+2.3+2+2.2+3+1.3+4−1.0+5−0.8
  • Mikal Bridges 2020-21 · age 24Then+1.3+1+3.6+2+1.9+3−0.2+4+1.2+5+2.3
  • Wilson Chandler 2010-11 · age 24Then+1.3+1+0.8+2+2.3+3−0.1+4−1.5+5out
  • Robert Covington 2014-15 · age 24Then+2.0+1+1.7+2+2.1+3+4.4+4+3.7+5+1.5
  • Kawhi Leonard 2012-13 · age 22Then+1.4+1+3.2+2+5.6+3+5.8+4+4.9+5+2.6

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Houston's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.