James Harden projections

James Harden's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

James Harden Cleveland · age 37

Overall
−0.0
Offense
+1.4
Defense
−1.4

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-6-4-20+2+4age 32age 34age 36Todayage 38age 40−1.6 in 3 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 3866%age 3938%age 4022%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season. Too few players have played this long to project further.

Why James Harden is rated −0.1

  • −0.1 means his teams score about 0.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 203rd best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +1.3 there (56th of 337), −1.4 on defense (316th of 337).
  • It's built on 2,700 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's down 0.5 since opening night, when he was at +0.4.
  • He's playing about 33 minutes a game for Cleveland, and last season he played like a star creator.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Cleveland's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: −0.1

Cleveland wins
46
Playoffs
87%
Title
1%

Try it with the whole Cleveland rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Kobe Bryant 2014-15 · age 36Then−1.4+1−2.1+2out+3out+4out+5out
  • Sam Cassell 2005-06 · age 36Then+0.8+1+0.9+2−0.3+3out+4out+5out
  • LeBron James 2021-22 · age 37Then+2.2+1+2.9+2+4.4+3−0.3+4−0.4+5out
  • Jamal Crawford 2015-16 · age 36Then−0.7+1−1.2+2−3.7+3−5.2+4−3.3+5out
  • Dwyane Wade 2018-19 · age 37Then−2.1+1out+2out+3out+4out+5out

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Cleveland's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.