RJ Barrett projections

RJ Barrett's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

RJ Barrett Toronto · age 26

Overall
+2.5
Offense
+2.4
Defense
+0.0

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-4-20+2+4+6age 22age 24age 26Todayage 27age 29age 31−0.2 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2789%age 2881%age 2974%age 3066%age 3157%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why RJ Barrett is rated +2.2

  • +2.2 means his teams score about 2.2 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 47th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +2.3 there (18th of 337), −0.1 on defense (189th of 337).
  • It's built on 1,950 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's up 0.5 since opening night, when he was at +1.6.
  • He's playing about 33 minutes a game for Toronto, and last season he played like a scoring wing.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Toronto's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +2.2

Toronto wins
45
Playoffs
86%
Title
1%

Try it with the whole Toronto rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Josh Howard 2006-07 · age 27Then+2.7+1+3.1+2+3.6+3+1.1+4−0.3+5−0.6
  • Wilson Chandler 2012-13 · age 26Then+2.3+1−0.1+2−1.5+3out+4−0.5+5−0.7
  • Pau Gasol 2007-08 · age 27Then+2.7+1+3.1+2+1.5+3+3.0+4+2.8+5+1.3
  • Jason Richardson 2005-06 · age 25Then+2.0+1+2.1+2+0.8+3−1.0+4+0.7+5+2.0
  • CJ McCollum 2016-17 · age 25Then+2.0+1+0.8+2+1.0+3+2.8+4+1.8+5+0.9

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Toronto's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.