Luka Dončić projections

Luka Dončić's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Luka Dončić LA Lakers · age 27

Overall
+3.1
Offense
+3.5
Defense
−0.4

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-20+2+4+6+8age 23age 25age 27Todayage 28age 30age 32−0.3 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2888%age 2979%age 3071%age 3162%age 3253%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Luka Dončić is rated +3.5

  • +3.5 means his teams score about 3.5 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 10th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +3.8 there (4th of 337), −0.2 on defense (213th of 337).
  • It's built on 2,550 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's up 1.0 since opening night, when he was at +2.6.
  • He's playing about 36 minutes a game for LA Lakers, and last season he played like a star creator.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay LA Lakers's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +3.5

LA Lakers wins
51
Playoffs
91%
Title
2%

Try it with the whole LA Lakers rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • James Harden 2017-18 · age 28Then+3.1+1+3.7+2+3.4+3+3.3+4+2.4+5+2.3
  • Kobe Bryant 2006-07 · age 28Then+3.8+1+4.9+2+4.2+3+4.2+4+2.2+5+1.7
  • Dwyane Wade 2008-09 · age 27Then+4.3+1+6.0+2+4.7+3+3.6+4+3.9+5+1.1
  • LeBron James 2011-12 · age 27Then+4.5+1+5.8+2+5.2+3+6.9+4+7.2+5+6.5
  • Tracy McGrady 2006-07 · age 28Then+3.2+1+2.5+2+1.2+3−0.7+40.0+5+1.6

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See LA Lakers's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.