Leaky Black projections

Leaky Black's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Leaky Black Sacramento · age 27

Overall
−0.3
Offense
+0.0
Defense
−0.3

Past seasons, and the next five

-4-20+2+4Todayage 28age 29age 30age 31age 32−0.3 in 5 seasons

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2888%age 2979%age 3071%age 3162%age 3253%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Leaky Black is rated −0.3

  • −0.3 means his teams score about 0.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 228th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +0.1 there (182nd of 337), −0.4 on defense (247th of 337).
  • It's built on 450 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more. That isn't many minutes, so his rating can still move a lot.
  • He's about where he started the season (−0.5).
  • He's playing about 19 minutes a game for Sacramento.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Sacramento's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: −0.3

Sacramento wins
22
Playoffs
<1%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole Sacramento rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Luther Head 2009-10 · age 27Then−0.3+1−1.1+2out+3out+4out+5out
  • Quentin Richardson 2006-07 · age 27Then−0.4+1−0.9+2−1.1+3+0.9+40.0+5−1.5
  • Jerami Grant 2020-21 · age 27Then−0.3+1+0.8+2−0.4+3−1.7+4−2.1+5−0.9
  • Caris LeVert 2020-21 · age 26Then−0.2+1−0.4+2+0.2+3+1.2+4+1.5+5−0.3
  • Carlos Arroyo 2007-08 · age 28Then−0.2+1out+2+0.2+3−1.2+4out+5out

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Sacramento's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.