Marvin Bagley III projections
Marvin Bagley III's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.
Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.
Marvin Bagley III Denver · age 27
- Overall
- −0.5
- Offense
- −0.1
- Defense
- −0.4
Past seasons, and the next five
Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.
Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.
| age 2888% | age 2979% | age 3071% | age 3162% | age 3253% |
Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.
Why Marvin Bagley III is rated −0.3
- −0.3 means his teams score about 0.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 217th best of the 337 players we rate.
- Most of it is offense: +0.4 there (132nd of 337), −0.6 on defense (268th of 337).
- It's built on 1,300 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
- He's about where he started the season (−0.1).
- He's playing about 12 minutes a game for Denver, and last season he played like a rim-running big.
What if he plays better, or worse?
Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Denver's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.
Our rating: −0.3
- Denver wins
- 51
- Playoffs
- 92%
- Title
- 4%
Players who looked like him at this age
Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:
- Kris Humphries 2010-11 · age 26Then−0.6+1+0.3+2−1.8+3−2.5+4−2.1+5−1.9
- Chris Mihm 2005-06 · age 26Then−0.7+1out+2−1.1+3−1.8+4out+5out
- Nazr Mohammed 2005-06 · age 28Then−0.6+1−2.4+2−3.1+3−1.5+4−1.0+5+0.3
- Jamaal Magloire 2005-06 · age 28Then−1.3+1−1.3+2−1.2+3+0.7+4+0.3+5+0.4
- Cody Zeller 2019-20 · age 27Then−0.5+1−0.6+2+0.1+3−1.1+4−0.1+5out
Playing like him today
The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.
- Deandre AytonWAS · −1.1
- Ivica ZubacIND · +1.4
- Isaiah StewartMEM · −0.5
- Daniel GaffordDAL · +0.3
- Precious AchiuwaSAC · −1.0
See Denver's odds and the rest of the roster
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.