Kawhi Leonard projections

Kawhi Leonard's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Kawhi Leonard Toronto · age 35

Overall
+5.0
Offense
+3.4
Defense
+1.6

Kawhi is out with knee soreness. We expect him back around Dec 3, usually somewhere between Nov 15 and Jan 7, going by how long that injury has kept players out since 2018. Move his return date on the team page

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-20+2+4+6+8age 32age 34Todayage 37age 39age 40−2.1 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 3673%age 3750%age 3834%age 3920%age 4012%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Kawhi Leonard is rated +5.1

  • +5.1 means his teams score about 5.1 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 4th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +3.5 there (7th of 337), +1.6 on defense (29th of 337).
  • It's built on 2,150 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's about where he started the season (+5.0).
  • He isn't in Toronto's rotation right now, so the forecast gives him no minutes.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Toronto's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +5.1

Kawhi isn't playing right now, so the forecast gives him no minutes and his rating can't move Toronto. Give him minutes on the team page to try it.

Try it with the whole Toronto rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Dirk Nowitzki 2011-12 · age 34Then+6.7+1+3.2+2+3.6+3+3.0+4+2.8+5+1.8
  • Stephen Curry 2021-22 · age 34Then+5.3+1+4.3+2+3.2+3+3.0+4+2.8+5out
  • Paul Pierce 2012-13 · age 35Then+3.5+1+2.9+2+1.8+3+0.1+4−0.6+5out
  • LeBron James 2018-19 · age 34Then+3.7+1+5.4+2+5.4+3+2.2+4+2.9+5+4.4
  • Vince Carter 2012-13 · age 36Then+5.0+1+3.1+2+1.3+3−0.2+4+1.9+5+2.4

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Toronto's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.