Damian Lillard projections

Damian Lillard's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Damian Lillard Portland · age 36

Overall
+1.5
Offense
+0.6
Defense
+0.9

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-4-20+2+4+6age 31age 33Todayage 37age 39age 40−2.0 in 4 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 3768%age 3844%age 3927%age 4015%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season. Too few players have played this long to project further.

Why Damian Lillard is rated +1.6

  • +1.6 means his teams score about 1.6 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 72nd best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +1.0 there (72nd of 337), +0.6 on defense (111th of 337).
  • It's built on 200 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more. That isn't many minutes, so his rating can still move a lot.
  • He's up 1.3 since opening night, when he was at +0.4.
  • He's playing about 29 minutes a game for Portland.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Portland's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +1.6

Portland wins
45
Playoffs
65%
Title
1%

Try it with the whole Portland rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Zydrunas Ilgauskas 2009-10 · age 35Then+1.5+1+1.0+2out+3out+4out+5out
  • Robert Horry 2005-06 · age 35Then+1.7+1+0.9+2+0.1+3out+4out+5out
  • Paul Pierce 2014-15 · age 37Then+1.8+1+0.1+2−0.6+3out+4out+5out
  • Kyle Lowry 2021-22 · age 36Then+1.7+1+2.4+2−0.5+3−0.6+4−1.0+5out
  • Pau Gasol 2015-16 · age 35Then+1.3+1+0.4+2+0.2+3−1.1+4out+5out

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Portland's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.