Collin Sexton projections

Collin Sexton's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Collin Sexton LA Lakers · age 27

Overall
−0.8
Offense
−0.5
Defense
−0.3

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-6-4-20+2+4age 23age 25age 27Todayage 28age 30age 32−0.3 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2888%age 2979%age 3071%age 3162%age 3253%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Collin Sexton is rated −1.0

  • −1.0 means his teams score about 1.0 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 277th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • It comes from both ends: −0.5 on offense (261st of 337) and −0.5 on defense (256th of 337).
  • It's built on 1,750 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's about where he started the season (−0.9).
  • He's playing about 17 minutes a game for LA Lakers, and last season he played like a star creator.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay LA Lakers's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: −1.0

LA Lakers wins
51
Playoffs
91%
Title
2%

Try it with the whole LA Lakers rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Derrick Rose 2015-16 · age 27Then−1.0+1−0.7+2−0.5+3−1.0+4+0.1+5+0.9
  • Caris LeVert 2020-21 · age 26Then−0.2+1−0.4+2+0.2+3+1.2+4+1.5+5−0.3
  • Reggie Jackson 2017-18 · age 28Then−0.2+1+1.0+2+2.5+3+2.3+4+1.0+5−0.8
  • Jordan Clarkson 2017-18 · age 26Then−1.5+1−0.4+2+0.3+3+1.1+4+2.2+5+2.0
  • Jarrett Jack 2010-11 · age 27Then−1.3+1−2.6+2−0.2+3−1.6+4−3.4+5−2.6

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See LA Lakers's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.