Will Riley projections

Will Riley's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Will Riley Washington · age 20

Overall
−3.0
Offense
−0.9
Defense
−2.1

Past seasons, and the next five

-6-4-20+2Todayage 21age 22age 23age 24age 25+1.2 in 5 seasons

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2190%age 2285%age 2382%age 2480%age 2577%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Will Riley is rated −3.2

  • −3.2 means his teams score about 3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 334th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • It comes from both ends: −1.0 on offense (297th of 337) and −2.2 on defense (334th of 337).
  • It's built on 1,650 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's down 0.5 since opening night, when he was at −2.8.
  • He's playing about 7 minutes a game for Washington, and last season he played like a scoring wing.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Washington's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: −3.2

Washington wins
23
Playoffs
1%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole Washington rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Tyler Herro 2020-21 · age 21Then−2.2+1+0.8+2+2.6+3+1.3+4+1.2+5−0.2
  • Gordon Hayward 2010-11 · age 21Then−2.9+1−1.3+2+2.5+3+0.8+4+2.1+5+2.0
  • Zach LaVine 2015-16 · age 21Then−3.5+1−2.9+2−2.2+3−0.9+4−1.7+5+0.8
  • RJ Barrett 2019-20 · age 20Then−2.7+1−0.7+2+0.2+3−1.6+4−2.0+5−0.3
  • R.J. Hampton 2020-21 · age 20Then−3.7+1−4.6+2−3.6+3−0.7+4out+5out

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Washington's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.