Jayson Tatum projections

Jayson Tatum's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Jayson Tatum Boston · age 28

Overall
+1.9
Offense
+1.0
Defense
+0.9

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-20+2+4+6+8age 24age 26age 28Todayage 29age 31age 33−0.6 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2986%age 3077%age 3168%age 3257%age 3347%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Jayson Tatum is rated +2.4

  • +2.4 means his teams score about 2.4 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 39th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • It comes from both ends: +1.2 on offense (59th of 337) and +1.2 on defense (50th of 337).
  • It's built on 750 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more. That isn't many minutes, so his rating can still move a lot.
  • He's up 0.4 since opening night, when he was at +2.0.
  • He's playing about 34 minutes a game for Boston, and last season he played like a star creator.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Boston's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +2.4

Boston wins
58
Playoffs
>99%
Title
18%

Try it with the whole Boston rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Blake Griffin 2017-18 · age 29Then+2.5+1+0.9+2+0.2+3+0.6+4−1.1+5+0.5
  • Richard Hamilton 2006-07 · age 29Then+2.6+1+2.1+2+1.3+3−0.8+4−1.1+5+0.7
  • Corey Maggette 2007-08 · age 28Then+1.7+1−1.1+2−2.5+3−2.1+4−2.1+5−1.8
  • Danny Granger 2010-11 · age 28Then+2.2+1+3.3+2+0.9+3+0.3+4−1.1+5out
  • Paul George 2017-18 · age 28Then+1.3+1+5.1+2+4.8+3+4.4+4+4.8+5+3.4

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Boston's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.