Deandre Ayton projections
Deandre Ayton's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.
Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.
Deandre Ayton Washington · age 28
- Overall
- −1.1
- Offense
- −0.5
- Defense
- −0.6
Past seasons, and the next five
Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.
Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.
| age 2986% | age 3077% | age 3168% | age 3257% | age 3347% |
Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.
Why Deandre Ayton is rated −1.3
- −1.3 means his teams score about 1.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 305th best of the 337 players we rate.
- It comes from both ends: −0.5 on offense (258th of 337) and −0.9 on defense (288th of 337).
- It's built on 2,050 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
- He's about where he started the season (−1.2).
- He's playing about 15 minutes a game for Washington, and last season he played like a rim-running big.
What if he plays better, or worse?
Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Washington's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.
Our rating: −1.3
- Washington wins
- 23
- Playoffs
- 1%
- Title
- <1%
Players who looked like him at this age
Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:
- Aron Baynes 2015-16 · age 29Then−0.9+1+0.7+2+2.5+3+2.3+4+0.5+5−1.9
- Jamaal Magloire 2005-06 · age 28Then−1.3+1−1.3+2−1.2+3+0.7+4+0.3+5+0.4
- Chris Boucher 2019-20 · age 27Then−0.2+1+1.9+2+3.6+3+1.1+4+0.7+5+2.3
- Etan Thomas 2006-07 · age 29Then−0.3+1out+2−1.5+3−1.8+4−1.4+5out
- Nazr Mohammed 2005-06 · age 28Then−0.6+1−2.4+2−3.1+3−1.5+4−1.0+5+0.3
Playing like him today
The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.
- Marvin Bagley IIIDEN · −0.5
- Kel'el WareMIL · −0.6
- Isaiah StewartMEM · −0.5
- Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · −0.6
- Jaxson HayesUTA · +0.0
See Washington's odds and the rest of the roster
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.