Zion Williamson projections

Zion Williamson's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Zion Williamson New Orleans · age 26

Overall
+1.0
Offense
+0.7
Defense
+0.4

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-4-20+2+4+6age 22age 24Todayage 28age 30age 31−0.2 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2789%age 2881%age 2974%age 3066%age 3157%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Zion Williamson is rated +1.0

  • +1.0 means his teams score about 1.0 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 121st best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is offense: +0.6 there (101st of 337), +0.3 on defense (150th of 337).
  • It's built on 2,050 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's up 0.5 since opening night, when he was at +0.5.
  • He's playing about 33 minutes a game for New Orleans, and last season he played like an interior big.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay New Orleans's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +1.0

New Orleans wins
33
Playoffs
6%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole New Orleans rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Julius Randle 2019-20 · age 25Then+0.3+1+1.3+2−0.2+3+1.0+4+1.3+5+0.4
  • Pau Gasol 2005-06 · age 25Then+2.0+1+0.2+2+2.7+3+3.1+4+1.5+5+3.0
  • Corey Maggette 2006-07 · age 27Then+2.2+1+1.7+2−1.1+3−2.5+4−2.1+5−2.1
  • Blake Griffin 2015-16 · age 27Then+1.8+1+3.0+2+2.5+3+0.9+4+0.2+5+0.6
  • Amar'e Stoudemire 2008-09 · age 26Then+1.5+1+1.6+2+1.5+3−1.7+4−1.6+5−2.9

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See New Orleans's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.