Ausar Thompson projections

Ausar Thompson's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Ausar Thompson Detroit · age 23

Overall
+3.1
Offense
+1.1
Defense
+2.0

Past seasons, and the next five

0+2+4+6+8age 21age 23Todayage 24age 26age 28+0.3 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2488%age 2583%age 2677%age 2772%age 2867%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Ausar Thompson is rated +3.1

  • +3.1 means his teams score about 3.1 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 20th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is defense: +2.0 there (13th of 337), +1.0 on offense (72nd of 337).
  • It's built on 2,050 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's about where he started the season (+3.1).
  • He's playing about 28 minutes a game for Detroit, and last season he played like a low-usage role player.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Detroit's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +3.1

Detroit wins
57
Playoffs
>99%
Title
15%

Try it with the whole Detroit rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Rajon Rondo 2007-08 · age 22Then+3.0+1+3.1+2+0.5+3+0.6+4+2.1+5+0.3
  • Kyle Anderson 2017-18 · age 24Then+1.7+1+1.1+2−1.4+3−1.1+4−0.8+5+1.2
  • Josh Smith 2009-10 · age 24Then+3.1+1+2.1+2+3.2+3+0.8+4−0.2+5−0.6
  • Derrick White 2018-19 · age 24Then+2.5+1+1.1+2+1.1+3+3.3+4+4.8+5+4.8
  • Jose Alvarado 2021-22 · age 24Then+2.9+1+1.9+2+3.0+3+0.9+4+0.3+5out

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Detroit's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.