Bub Carrington projections
Bub Carrington's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.
Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.
Bub Carrington Washington · age 21
- Overall
- −4.3
- Offense
- −1.4
- Defense
- −2.8
Past seasons, and the next five
Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.
Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.
| age 2290% | age 2386% | age 2482% | age 2578% | age 2675% |
Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.
Why Bub Carrington is rated −4.3
- −4.3 means his teams score about 4.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 337th best of the 337 players we rate.
- It comes from both ends: −1.5 on offense (326th of 337) and −2.8 on defense (337th of 337).
- It's built on 2,400 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
- He's about where he started the season (−4.4).
- He's playing about 19 minutes a game for Washington, and last season he played like a playmaking guard.
What if he plays better, or worse?
Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Washington's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.
Our rating: −4.3
- Washington wins
- 23
- Playoffs
- 1%
- Title
- <1%
Players who looked like him at this age
Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:
- Kevin Porter Jr. 2019-20 · age 20Then−3.6+1−3.8+2−0.4+3+0.3+4out+50.0
- Anfernee Simons 2019-20 · age 21Then−4.5+1−3.0+2+0.6+3+0.5+4−1.4+5−1.9
- Zach LaVine 2014-15 · age 20Then−3.8+1−3.5+2−2.9+3−2.2+4−0.9+5−1.7
- R.J. Hampton 2021-22 · age 21Then−4.6+1−3.6+2−0.7+3out+4out+5out
- Emmanuel Mudiay 2017-18 · age 22Then−3.9+1−2.5+2−1.9+3out+4−0.7+5out
Playing like him today
The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.
- Ousmane DiengMIL · −2.9
- Will RileyWAS · −3.0
- Khris MiddletonWAS · −2.3
- Jase RichardsonORL · −1.8
- Kasparas JakučionisMIL · −1.3
See Washington's odds and the rest of the roster
How the forecast works, and how often it's right
How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.