Alex Sarr projections

Alex Sarr's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Alex Sarr Washington · age 21

Overall
−1.1
Offense
−1.8
Defense
+0.7

Past seasons, and the next five

-4-20+2+4age 20Todayage 23age 25age 26+0.9 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 2290%age 2386%age 2482%age 2578%age 2675%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Alex Sarr is rated −1.1

  • −1.1 means his teams score about 1.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 290th best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is defense: +0.6 there (118th of 337), −1.7 on offense (331st of 337).
  • It's built on 1,450 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's about where he started the season (−1.4).
  • He's playing about 26 minutes a game for Washington, and last season he played like an interior big.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Washington's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: −1.1

Washington wins
23
Playoffs
1%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole Washington rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Deandre Ayton 2018-19 · age 20Then−0.7+1−0.7+2+1.7+3+1.6+4+0.1+5−0.5
  • Tyrus Thomas 2008-09 · age 22Then−1.0+1−0.8+2−0.2+3−1.2+4−1.7+5out
  • Wendell Carter Jr. 2020-21 · age 22Then−1.0+1+1.2+2+1.0+3+0.4+4−0.3+5+0.8
  • Enes Freedom 2012-13 · age 21Then−0.1+1−2.9+2−1.7+3+0.5+4+1.3+5−0.4
  • Naz Reid 2020-21 · age 21Then−1.9+1−3.0+2−3.0+3−0.5+4+2.8+5+2.2

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Washington's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.