Lauri Markkanen projections

Lauri Markkanen's rating today, where players like him usually go from here, and the players from the past who looked the most like him.

Ratings as of 2026-11-08. The typical path for each age comes from every season since 2005-06.

Lauri Markkanen Utah · age 29

Overall
+0.8
Offense
+0.4
Defense
+0.3

Past seasons, and the next five

Seasons back
-4-20+2+4age 25age 27age 29Todayage 30age 32age 34−0.7 in 5 seasons

Grey: his rating at the end of each past season. A hollow dot is a season under 500 minutes, so that rating rests on less.

Line: the typical path. Band: where 80% of players this age ended up. Rating is points per 100 possessions compared with an average player.

Still a rotation player
age 3085%age 3176%age 3263%age 3351%age 3440%

Share of players this age who were still playing 500+ minutes that season.

Why Lauri Markkanen is rated +0.5

  • +0.5 means his teams score about 0.5 more points per 100 possessions with him than with an average player in his spot, after we account for who he plays with and against. That's the 163rd best of the 337 players we rate.
  • Most of it is defense: +0.4 there (148th of 337), +0.1 on offense (186th of 337).
  • It's built on 1,600 minutes from this season and last, and the recent games count more.
  • He's down 1.2 since opening night, when he was at +1.6.
  • He's playing about 31 minutes a game for Utah, and last season he played like a scoring wing.

What if he plays better, or worse?

Slide his rating to where you think it should be. We replay Utah's season 2,000 times with him there and everyone else as they are.

Our rating: +0.5

Utah wins
21
Playoffs
<1%
Title
<1%

Try it with the whole Utah rotation →

Players who looked like him at this age

Closest on offense, defense and playing style, within a year of his age. Their next five seasons:

  • Brook Lopez 2016-17 · age 29Then+1.1+1−0.3+2+2.4+3+2.2+4+2.2+5+1.0
  • Al Harrington 2009-10 · age 30Then−0.3+1−0.6+2+1.6+3+0.2+40.0+5out
  • Danilo Gallinari 2018-19 · age 30Then+2.0+1+1.8+2+2.4+3+1.4+4out+5−1.4
  • Nick Young 2013-14 · age 29Then+1.0+1+1.2+2−2.1+3+0.4+4−1.0+5−0.4
  • Corey Maggette 2007-08 · age 28Then+1.7+1−1.1+2−2.5+3−2.1+4−2.1+5−1.8

Playing like him today

The current players closest to him in how they play and how good they are.

See Utah's odds and the rest of the roster

How the forecast works, and how often it's right

How it works: every season-end rating since 2005-06, and what the same players did one to five seasons later. The typical change only counts players still in the league, so the line is a little rosier than reality for older players; the rotation-player row shows how many dropped out. Our ratings, built from play-by-play data. Not affiliated with the NBA.